Where Does Your Pitcher Rank?

Velocity Perspective: What Matters, What Doesn’t, and What to Watch Out For

If you’d been away on a space mission for the past 50 years and just landed back on Earth, you might be stunned by how much more weight is given to velocity in today’s competitive baseball landscape compared to the 1970s.

Truth is, velocity has always been coveted. But with the rise of radar guns in every dugout and technologies like Trackman® giving instant feedback on pitch data, velocity has evolved from being just one desirable quality into a central metric that often defines a pitcher’s value, future opportunity, and status…sometimes even more than it should.

It’s not hard to see how we got here. In a playoff game between the Yankees and Rays in 2020, the average fastball velocity of that game hit a record 97.1 mph. Imagine that!. As someone who grew up idolizing guys like Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, and Nolan Ryan, I can tell you… even I had a hard time wrapping my head around that number.

And I don’t see the trend slowing down anytime soon.

With the obsession around velocity continuing to intensify, it’s no surprise that myths, misinformation, and anxiety have crept in, especially among parents wondering how their Johnny stacks up when it comes to mound time, college recruiting, or draft buzz. Velocity is often, fairly or not, right in the middle of those conversations.

So, as someone who’s spent over 30 years training pitchers…with 141 draft picks and hundreds of scholarship athletes coming through our doors…allow me to offer some perspective. Consider this a grounding reminder, especially if you’re starting to feel overwhelmed or uncertain.

Lesson #1: The 8–14 Age Range Is a Fragile Window

Let’s get something straight from the beginning. At the Texas Baseball Ranch®, we absolutely support developing a powerful, healthy arm at any age. But chasing radar gun numbers or obsessing over them during ages 8 to 14? That’s a very dangerous game.

It’s tempting, I get it. But here’s why we strongly caution against it…

•       No one earns a college scholarship or gets drafted at 10–14 years old. Yes, a few freshmen or sophomores might get early verbal offers. But make no mistake, those offers aren’t binding. Whether or not they hold up depends on how that athlete performs during the spring and summer of their junior year. Unfortunately, every year we meet seniors who thought their recruiting process was behind them, only to find out it's just beginning. Those are tough conversations, and my heart breaks for those families.

•       Physical development is wildly inconsistent. I’ve seen 12-year-olds throwing in the upper 70s who plateau at 82 by age 17… and others who topped out at 58 mph as preteens only to eventually hit 90+ and pitch in the big leagues. No one has ever asked me how good I was at 12, and that’s because everyone instinctively knows that performance at that age isn’t directly predictive of success later on.

•       Soft tissue is still developing. That means pushing for max-effort throws at high volumes can be a fast track to injury. We see it all the time, young athletes racing up the wrong mountain, only to discover the summit doesn’t offer what they hoped. Some stress is necessary for adaptation, yes, but the dosage, frequency, and duration must be carefully managed. It’s not about avoiding effort, it’s about applying it with precision and patience.

In the frenzy to chase velocity, we often overlook four other vital components of development, areas that usually deserve more attention, especially in young throwers.

1.  Pain and discomfort should always come first. If a pitcher is in pain, chronic or acute, our top priority must be eliminating it. Gains don’t stick when the arm isn’t healthy. Velocity should never come before durability.

2.  Recovery is a red flag. Big swings in velocity or inconsistent performance often point to a recovery problem. If recovery is poor, everything else will eventually break down.

3.  Command keeps pitchers in the game. Velocity might get you noticed, but command keeps you pitching. Throwing hard doesn’t mean much if you can’t throw strikes or if you’re constantly behind in the count.

4.  Stuff, spin, and deception are essential to long-term advancement. Plenty of guys have hit 95+ on the gun but never advanced because they didn’t miss enough bats. Getting swings and misses…neutralizing the barrel…is what separates pitchers who flash from those who last.

Lesson #2: Where You Live Matters (Even If It Shouldn’t)

It might sound strange, but 85 mph doesn’t mean the same thing in every part of the country.

A 17-year-old in Kimball, Nebraska who throws 85 may be seen as an absolute stud… while the same velocity in Houston, Miami, or Southern California might barely raise an eyebrow. We all tend to gauge ourselves relative to those around us. And that can either inflate or deflate our true perception of ability.

So parents, keep perspective. Don’t get too high or too low based on where your son stacks up regionally. Look broader, zoom out, and remember, this is a long game. One game, one tournament, one radar reading doesn’t define anything.

So How Hard Is “Hard Enough”?

Here’s how we currently assess velocity benchmarks by age at the Ranch. These aren’t absolutes, but they give you a helpful sense of where your athlete stands and where the real constraints may lie.

12 Years Old:

<55 mph: Significantly behind
56–60 mph: Slightly behind
61–64 mph: On track
65–69 mph: Slightly ahead

70 mph: Significantly ahead

13 Years Old:

<60 mph: Significantly behind
61–65 mph: Slightly behind
66–71 mph: On track
72–75 mph: Slightly ahead

76 mph: Significantly ahead

14 Years Old:

<68 mph: Significantly behind
69–73 mph: Slightly behind
74–79 mph: On track
80–83 mph: Slightly ahead

84 mph: Significantly ahead

15 Years Old:

<72 mph: Significantly behind
73–78 mph: Slightly behind
79–82 mph: On track
83–86 mph: Slightly ahead

87 mph: Significantly ahead

16 Years Old:

<75 mph: Significantly behind
76–80 mph: Slightly behind
81–85 mph: On track
86–89 mph: Slightly ahead

90 mph: Significantly ahead

17 Years Old:

<80 mph: Significantly behind
81–83 mph: Slightly behind
84–87 mph: On track
88–91 mph: Slightly ahead

92 mph: Significantly ahead

18 Years Old:

<82 mph: Significantly behind
83–85 mph: Slightly behind
86–89 mph: On track
90–92 mph: Slightly ahead

93 mph: Significantly ahead

19–22 Years Old:

<84 mph: Significantly behind
85–87 mph: Slightly behind
88–92 mph: On track
93–95 mph: Slightly ahead

96 mph: Significantly ahead

What It All Means

Velocity matters. It opens doors. It creates opportunities. But it’s just one piece of a much bigger puzzle. When pursued recklessly, especially too early, it can do far more harm than good.

Our goal isn’t to stir fear or discourage ambition. We’re here to bring clarity, context, and a long-term approach that prioritizes each athlete’s health and development. Let the radar gun inform your progress, not define your identity. And if your numbers are ahead of the curve, great but don’t let that success pull your attention away from the other skills that truly drive advancement at the next level.

Personally, I believe a smart and sustainable goal for any aspiring college or professional pitcher is to reach and stay in the slightly ahead category…while also developing a durable, healthy arm, commanding the baseball at a high level, building elite secondary pitches, and recovering well between outings.

In my 30+ years of experience, chasing the significantly ahead category at all costs has led to far more pain, injury, frustration, and disappointment than it has to lasting success. Yes, velocity can help but successful pitching at the higher levels is about so much more than a number on a radar gun.

But what if you're currently behind for your age group, either slightly or significantly? First, welcome to the club. Far more pitchers are behind in velocity than ahead. You’re not alone.

Second, where you start is never where you have to finish. As of this writing, we’ve had over 650 athletes at the Texas Baseball Ranch® touch 90 mph.

Now, without question, some of those players were going to hit that milestone with or without us. But many of them reached it because of the structure, support, and mentorship they received here. The point is, progress is possible…real, measurable, meaningful progress, even if you’re starting from behind.

No matter where you currently stand, you are not fixed. You’re not stuck. You can improve your standing. You just need a system that meets you where you are and guides you with precision through the next steps in your pitching journey.

And always remember…yes, the radar gun is easy to see, but the real work... and the real rewards... live in everything that number doesn't show.

The topic of velocity sits just below politics and religion in terms of how much heat and emotion it stirs up. But our goal at the Ranch is always the same: to help you sort fact from fiction and make the most informed, thoughtful decisions possible.

Until next time…

Stay curious and keep reaching for the stars,
Coach Ron Wolforth

Coach Ron Wolforth is the founder of The Texas Baseball Ranch® and has authored six books on pitching, including the Amazon Best Seller Pitching with Confidence. Since 2003, The Texas Baseball Ranch® has had 141 of their players drafted, and 651 have broken the 90 mph barrier. Coach Wolforth has consulted with 13 MLB teams, numerous NCAA programs, and is often referred to as “America’s Go-To Guy on Pitching.”

Coach Wolforth lives in Montgomery, TX with his wife, Jill. They are intimately familiar with youth select, travel baseball and PG events as their son Garrett (now a professional player) went through the process. Garrett a former catcher in the Cincinnati Reds and Houston Astros organization still holds the PG Underclass All-American Games record for catcher velocity at 89 mph which he set in 2014 at the age of 16.

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Coach Wolforth will be hosting a special 90 minute webinar - "The Velocity Code: 3 Secrets to Improving Velocity and Staying Healthy" Thursday at 7pm CST. To sign up for the webinar, use the following link: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_DoAP-k5zQkmFXaqqt_md_Q#/registration

Fall/Winter Events at the Texas Baseball Ranch®

Join our 3-Day “Elite Pitcher’s Boot Camps” designed for pitchers ages 12 and above. These events are the gold standard in the baseball industry and are held every month from September-February. For additional details and dates, visit:

 https://www.texasbaseballranch.com/elite-pitchers-bootcamp/

Interested in learning what sets our boot camps apart? Request our comprehensive information package “What Makes This Bootcamp Different?" by emailing Jill@TexasBaseballRanch.com

Elite CATCHER’s Bootcamp - This once a year event has become the Gold Standard among catching camps.  The 7th Annual event will be held December 12-14.  An “Early Bird” savings is available through October 31st but spots are limited to ONLY 36 athletes.  More information and registration available at www.TexasBaseballRanch.com/catcher

Free Book Offer: Want a free copy of Coach Wolforth’s book, Pitching with Confidence?

Visit: www.freepitchingbook.com.

From the Greater Houston area?  Join us for our Fall/Winter classes or private training. 

For more information, email: info@TexasBaseballRanch.com or call (936)588-6762.